供应中断风险下可靠性改善和产能订购研究

The Strategy of Reliability Improvement and Capacity Reservation under Supply Disruption

针对供应中断风险,研究了制造商进行后备产能订购时的采购决策和主供应商的可靠性改善决策,利用报童理论建立了模型,通过非线性规划得到了制造商的最优订购策略及其改善可靠性的投资策略。通过数值分析讨论了改善可靠性的投资成本系数对制造商和供应商双方决策以及风险因素的影响。研究表明,制造商的采购策略由可靠性的上下阈值决定;可靠性的最优改善量与改善可靠性成本系数呈正比;改善可靠性给制造商和主供应商带来的收益大小与初始可靠性有关,数值分析表明当初始可靠性位于0.5附近时收益最大;改善可靠性也可以在一定程度上抵御需求波动风险。

In order to solve the risk of supply disruption,this paper studies the purchasing decision-making and the reliability improvement decision of the main supplier when the manufacturer completes the reserve production order. The model is established by using the theory of newsboy,and the optimal ordering strategy of the manufacturer is obtained by non-linear programming improve the reliability of the investment strategy. Through numerical analysis,it discusses the impact of improving the reliability of the investment cost coefficient on the decision-making and risk factors of both the manufacturer and the supplier. The result shows that the manufacturer＇s purchasing strategy is determined by the upper and lower thresholds of reliability; the optimal improvement in reliability is proportional to the improved reliability cost factor; and the size of the benefits to manufacturers and major suppliers by improving reliability is related to initial reliability. The numerical analysis shows that the benefits are greatest when the initial reliability is near 0. 5; improving the reliability can also resist the risk of demand fluctuation to a certain extent.