多因素影响下我国生猪供应链价格传导研究

Research on Price Transmission Mechanism of Hog Supply Chain under the Influence of Multi-factors

生猪供应链体系中上游的仔猪价格、饲料价格,下游的替代品价格、居民收入水平以及市场的供需关系均会影响生猪价格。构建了多因素影响下的生猪供应链价格传导的系统动力学模型,仿真分析了供应链体系中生猪价格的传导机理。仿真结果表明:供求关系是导致生猪价格波动的最根本原因;疫情、政府补贴政策等外生变量对生猪市场的影响具有实效性,且近期影响较大;玉米价格对生猪价格影响显著,且变化方向一致;牛肉价格对生猪价格影响较小;政府适时适度的干预有助于稳定生猪市场。

The hog price is affected by many factors,such as the price of piglet,price of feed in the upstream of hog supply chain,price of alternatives in the downstream of hog supply chain,level of income and supply-demand relationship. In this paper,the system dynamics model of price transmission in pig supply chain under the influence of multiple factors is constructed,and the transmission mechanism of pig price in supply chain system is simulated and analyzed. The simulation results shows that the fundamental reason of hog price fluctuations is supply and demand. Moreover,the exogenous variables including epidemic and government subsidy policy,these fators have a statistically significant effect on the hog price and they agree on the direction of change,and the recent impact is larger. The price of maize has a significant effect on the price of hog,and the direction of change is consistent. The price of beef has little impact on the hog price. Timely and appropriate of government intervention is useful for stabilizing hog market.