四步曲奏响,集中度提升中国造纸行业格局

Four-step development--industrial concentration optimized the layout of China paper

排污许可证发放本身起到清查和消灭小产能的效果,多省市清除造纸厂比例大超预期;废纸进口系统性收紧将根源性切断大量中小包装纸纸厂的原料来源,拥有自有规范废纸回收渠道的包装纸企业会受益;环保因素之外,中小纸企高杠杆背景下融资成本比上轮周期显著提升,在税收环境趋严背景下,低RO E高财务成本的小造纸厂纷纷趁纸价提升、设备价值回升寻求出售主动退出;排污许可证落地后各地环保指标上限更为明确,沿海各省能耗与环保指标已接近上限,新投产能大多以技改或替代落后产能为主,中西部产能没有当地消费配套难有有效支撑,环保与能耗赋予行业总产能天花板,需求侧维持稳定,2018年底造纸大企业的项目投产不会像市场想象的严重冲击供需格局.

The status quo of China paper industry is similar to the U.S. paper in the period from the late 19 th century to end of 20 th century, in which big paper enterprises began to emerge, industrial structure was still relatively separated, environmental policies were just initiated, overcapacity elimination was started based on supplyside revolution, and industrial concentration was lifted rapidly by acquisition and reorganization for the purpose of investment costs reduction.