数值模式对强台风“菲特”登陆期间预报能力评述

The NWP models' evaluation of landfall processes of the strong typhoon Fitow

基于自动站观测和ECMWF再分析资料,针对中国气象局上海台风研究所区域高分辨率台风模式(Shanghai Tropical Cyclone High Resolution Analysis and Prediction System,STI-THRAPS)和业务常用的4个数值模式,即欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts,EC)全球模式,美国全球预报系统(The Global Forecast System,GFS),日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency,JMA)全球模式和我国T639(T639L60)全球模式,对1323号台风"菲特"登陆过程的预报性能进行了综合检验评估。结果显示:对暴雨以上的强降水预报STI-THRAPS有明显优势。仅有该模式对超过500 mm的极端降水做出预报,且各项评分均好于全球模式,漏报率也明显优于其他模式。对暴雨以下的降水预报各个模式差距不大。美国GFS和STI-THRAPS较好地预报了大风区,STI-THRAPS预报的风场与实况的空间相关程度最高。从漏报率上来看,STI-THRAPS模式的风场预报具有明显优势。虽然预报最大风速偏大,但是STI-THRAPS在24 h后的路径预报有较大优势。

Based on the observation data and the ECMWF reanalysis data,the forecast products made by STI-THRAPS( Shanghai Tropical cyclone High resolution Analysis and Prediction System) and other four models,ECMWF/EC( European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts),GFS( The Global Forecast System),JMA( Japan Meteorological Agency) and T639( TL639 L60 Global Model),are verified and assessed by statistic method for typhoon Fitow. The results showthat the STI-THRAPS has significant advantages for the prediction of torrential rain and severe rain. The score of STI-THRAPS is better than other models. There is little difference between each two models of the prediction from light rain to heavy rain. GFS and STI-THRAPS have made a good prediction for the wind area. The special related degree of wind filed between STI-THRAPS and observation is the most optimal. Besides that,STI-THRAPS has significant advantages in false alarm ratio and false negative ratio. The STITHRAPS model is the best at the prediction of the track after 24 h,but the center pressure and the maximum wind speed are higher than observation.