新疆玛纳斯河流域潜在蒸散量年代际变化特征研究

Decadal Variation of Potential Evapotranspiration of the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang

为了阐明新疆玛纳斯河流域潜在蒸散量年代际变化特征,本研究通过分析玛纳斯河流域5个气象站点1961-2014年的逐日气象资料,运用联合国粮食与农业组织(FAO)推荐的Penman-Monteith模型来计算参考作物蒸散量,利用累积距平、Mann-Kendall突变分析法、偏相关分析与贡献率等方法计算其特征变化。结果表明,潜在蒸散量在20世纪90年代达到最低,自2000年开始增加。春季和全年潜在蒸散量变化趋势一致,夏季、秋季潜在蒸散量呈减少趋势,冬季潜在蒸散量无明显变化;通过Mann-Kendal突变分析法检验表明,夏季、秋季潜在蒸散量突变时间分别为1986年、1980年,而春季、冬季不存在突变点;风速、气温是全年及季节潜在蒸散量变化的主导因素。

In order to clarify the decadal variation characteristics of potential evapotranspiration of Manas river basin in Xinjiang,this study aims to calculate the potential evapotranspiration according to the Penman Monteith model,based on the daily meteorological data of Manas river basin from 1961 to 2014.The decadal variation feature of potential evapotranspiration was analyzed by using the cumulative departure and Mann-Kendall method.The influence of different meteorological factors on potential evapotranspiration was analyzed by partial correlation analysis and contribution rate method.The results showed that:the potential evapotranspiration was the lowest in the 1990 sand increased since 2000.The potential evapotranspiration in spring changed similarly with the potential evapotranspiration of the whole year.The potential evapotranspiration in summer and autumn showed a decreased trend.And there was no significant change of potential evapotranspiration in winter.Mann-Kendall mutation analysis showed that the summer and autumn potential evapotranspiration mutation time was 1986 and 1980,respectively.In spring and winter,there was no mutation point.Wind speed and air temperature were the main factors causing the change of potential evapotranspiration.