人口老龄化对居民消费行为影响效应的实证检验

Empirical Test of Influence of Population Aging on Consumer Behavior

文章在世代交叠跨期最优消费理论的基础上,建立了人口老龄化与居民平均消费倾向之间的理论模型,运用山东省城镇居民1992—2015年的相关统计数据,利用协整、误差修正及VAR模型从城镇居民平均消费倾向、实际消费水平、消费结构等方面实证分析人口老龄化对居民消费行为的动态影响。结果表明:人口老龄化的加深是居民实际消费行为变化的原因;人口老龄化与山东省城镇居民平均消费倾向负相关;人口年龄结构与各类消费率均有显著影响,但影响的大小和方向有差异。老龄化与食品、衣着、家庭设备用品及服务消费率正相关,与居住、医疗保健、交通通讯消费率负相关。

On the basis of the overlapping inter-temporal optimal consumption theory, this paper establishes a theoretical model of population aging and average consumption tendency of the residents, and uses the related statistical data of urban resi- dents in Shandong Province from 1992 to 2015, co-integration, error correction and VAR model to empirically analyze the dynam- ic effects of population aging on consumer demand from the aspects concerning average urban residents＇ consumption tendency, actual consumption level, consumption structure, etc.. The result shows that population ageing increasing accounts for the change of people＇s consumption level; the population aging is negatively correlated to the average consumption tendency of the urban resi- dents in Shandong; there exists significant influence of population age structure on all kinds of consumption rates, but the degree and direction of influence are variant; specifically, aging is positively correlated to food, clothing, household equipment, supplies and services consumption rate, but negatively correlated to inhabiting, health care, transportation and communication consumption rate.