复杂系统视域下中国“城市矿产”产业脆弱性研究

Vulnerability Analysis and Strategy for the Urban Mines Industry of China

"城市矿产"是工业及城镇化过程产生的电子、金属、橡胶、塑料等废弃资源。从社会化大循环背景出发,研究我国"城市矿产"产业上、中、下游生态链的网络结构,从供应、回收、处理、市场4个环节分析其产业脆弱性结构以其影响因素,提炼产业系统脆弱性因子;根据产业集聚过程的内、外动因,从管理水平、企业规模、技术水平等8个方面构建三级产业系统脆弱性评价指标体系,采用层次分析法(AHP)分析各项指标及权重,寻找影响系统稳定的关键因子并进行客观评价;最后提出"微观调节、中观协调、宏观调控"的系统性防范对策。

The ＂Urban Mines＂ industrial structure and influence factors of vulnerability were studied based on industrial chain link analysis. The vulnerability evaluation index system of Urban Mines industry was constructed. The indicators and the weights of the evaluation system were analyzed by using the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. The key factors to influence the system stability were estimated objectively. Finally from the perspective of social circulation, ＂micro adjustment, medium coordination and macro control＂ systemic countermeasures are put forward as follows： （1） Microscopic Regulation： According to the structure of system vulnerability model and brittle factors affecting the level of conditioning industry system in abundance, variables such as the network center intensity, the heterogeneous nodes, coupling relationship between frequency and quality should be regulated to control system brittleness path and strengthen industrial network structure reliability; （2） Medium Regulation： From the whole industry chain link, stable and reliable source of supply should be ensured; recycling system specification should be organized orderly; efficient resource processing should be emphasized; continuous equilibrium market benefit should be maintained; （3） Macroeconomic Regulation： From the aspect of the systemic circulation of social system, the paper puts forward the macro policy suggestions including government channel funds, law and system reform, technology innovation, fiscal and taxation support, so as to provide effective guidance to avoid the instability of industrial structure.