寨卡病毒传播潜力与控制策略有效性分析

Analysis on Transmission Potential and Control Strategies of Zika Virus

目前寨卡病毒已在超过65个国家和地区传播,为了估计新加坡寨卡病毒的传播潜力和有关控制策略的有效性,首先采用经典的传染病模型并结合累计报告病例数,借助最小二乘法和MCMC方法进行模型参数估计,寻求拟合累计病例数最佳的参数集合及其相应的置信区间.进而根据再生矩阵法求得的基本再生数公式,得到了新加坡寨卡爆发的阈值参数R0的估计值和置信区间,通过对比分析验证了新加坡寨卡病毒传播基本再生数的可靠性.之后,分析了累计病例数对各个关键参数的敏感性,探讨针对寨卡病毒传播控制策略的有效性.结果表明:在对新加坡寨卡病毒的控制中,需要通过增加检疫次数和检疫率、对患者进行隔离以及有效地灭蚊,并且通过减少疫区的游客数量达到控制疫情的效果.

Currently,Zika virus has spread in more than 65 countries and regions. To estimate the transmission potential of Zika virus and evaluate the effectiveness of the control strategies in Singapore,the classical infectious disease model was employed,and both the least square method and the MCMC method were used to estimate the unknown parameters which can fit the cumulative number of reported cases very well. With the next-generation matrix method the basic reproduction number was calculated and its value and confidence interval were evaluated according to the estimated parameter values,which can be verified through comparison between the results obtained from 2 different estimation methods. Furthermore,the effectiveness of different control measures was discussed in more details through sensitivity analyses,which can help verify the key parameters related to the cumulative number of cases and the Zika outbreak. The results show that,for the control of Zika virus in Singapore,the number of screening and the screening rate shall be increased,the quarantine and isolation of infected patients and the mosquito control shall be effectively implemented,and the number of tourists shall be reduced.