京津冀地区钢铁行业节能和CO_2减排的技术路径

Technology Path of Energy Conservation and CO_2 Emissions Reduction of Iron and Steel Industry in Jing-Jin-Ji

京津冀地区聚集了中国近1/3的钢铁产能。钢铁行业为该地区的经济发展做出了很大贡献,但是也面临着节能和CO_2减排的巨大压力。建立自下而上的综合优化模型,以钢铁行业国家鼓励推广的44项节能技术为基础,在京津冀地区钢铁行业发展目标约束下,优化技术发展路径。研究表明,高温高压干熄焦技术等25项投资成本较低、节能量大的技术将会被广泛采用。在2015—2025年期间内,与基准情景相比,减排情景和碳税情景下的累计节能潜力分别为1 550万吨标准煤和2 549万吨标准煤,累计CO_2减排潜力分别为4 029万吨和6 629万吨;三种情景下的CO_2减排成本分别为7 931.2亿元、8 021.3亿元和10 217.5亿元。与减排情景相比,在碳税情景下,减排成本增加27.38%,但CO_2减排潜力将进一步提高64.5%。因此,采用成本低、节能量大的技术和征收一定的CO_2排放税能够有效地促进CO_2减排。

Jing-Jin-Ji region accounts for nearly one third of China＇s iron and steel capacity. Iron and steel industry makes a great contribution to this region＇s economy, however it is faced with great pressure on energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction. This study establishes a bottom-up integrated optimization model based on 44 energy conservation technologies to evaluate the optimal technological development pathways of iron and steel industry in Jing-Jin-Ji. The results show that 25 technologies with larger energy saving amount and lower cost show the most significant increases in future adoption, such as Coke Dry Quenching. During 2015-2025, the accumulated energy saving potential for emission reduction scenario and carbon tax scenario, compared with the reference scenario, are 15.50 and 25.49 million ton coal equivalent, the accumulated CO2 reduction potential are 40.29 million ton and 66.29 million ton. Total costs are 793.12 billion, 802.13 billion, and 1 021.75 billion yuan, respectively. Compared with emission reduction scenario, the cost will increase by 27.38%, however CO2 reduction potential will increase by 64.5% for carbon tax scenario. Therefore, technologies with larger energy saving amount and lower cost and carbon tax can effectively reduce CO2 emission.