基于农地转入方视角的农地流转风险识别及评价分析——以上海为例

The Analysis on Risk Identification and Its Evaluation of Farmland Transferees: A Case of Shanghai

立足农地转入方的角度,通过文献梳理和实地访谈,利用流程图法识别出农地转入方面临的风险主要有:市场风险、流转期限风险、政策风险、技术设备风险、自然风险等。在此基础上,以上海市为例,运用AHP-模糊综合评价法对上海市农地转入方的风险情况进行评价,结果表明:上海市农地转入方风险评价得分为73.756 5,风险等级在一般和较高之间,需引起高度重视。最后,文章构建出包括政府、市场、农户个体的风险规避机制,期望能帮助农地转入方在规模经营过程中有效规避风险。

From the perspective of farmland transferees, this paper identified kinds of risks during the process of farmland transfer by using Flowchart Method based on literature review and field survey. The risks that farmland transferees primarily faced include： Market risk, duration risk, policy risk, equipment risk and natural risk, etc.. Based on the risk identification, the paper, taking Shanghai as an example, made a risk evaluation for farmland transferees by using AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The result showed that the comprehensive score of risk assessment of Shanghai is 73.756 5, which is between ＂general＂ and ＂higher＂ level in the risk ranks needing to be paid more attention. Finally, a ＂risk-aversion-mechanism＂ was constructed in the perspective of government, market and individual farmers, hoping to work well for the farmland transferees.