中国制造业产业结构演进的区域分异与环境效应

Spatial Differentiation and Environmental Consequences of Industrial Structural Evolution of China's Manufacture

文章应用全局主成分分析方法(GPCA),基于地级行政单元数据分析了2001—2008年中国制造业产业空间分布演进趋势,结果表明:东南沿海核心区率先推进产业结构优化,产业结构向深加工化和技术密集化发展;北部沿海核心区的产业结构优化滞后于东南沿海核心区;中部地区的产业结构演进处于从重化工化向加工化过渡的阶段;西部地区产业发展主要集中于重点开发区域,产业结构演进尚处于工业化初期阶段。文章进一步检验了制造业产业结构演进和产业转移对各地区环境污染的影响,发现制造业转入会加剧地区环境污染。不同类型的产业转移对环境污染的影响不同,日用消费品产业、农业资源型产业、重化工业的转入会显著加剧地区污染物排放,而技术密集型产业和耐用消费品产业的转入则会减缓本地污染排放的增加,但作用在统计上并不显著。

Using Generalized Principle Component Analysis, this paper quantitatively analyzed the trend and evolution of manufacture structure in prefecture-level administrative units in China. It is verified that： Core region in the southeast coastal areas took the lead in propelling industrial structure upgrading by transferring to deep processing and technological intensive sectors. The industrial development in core region of the northern coastal areas fell behind core region of the southeast coastal areas. The industrial structure in the central areas has transferred from heavy chemical manufacture to processing manufacture. Industrial development in the western areas concentrated on priority region and the industrial structure evolution was still on the early stage of industrialization. Furthermore, this paper empirically examined the environmental impact of regional manufacture structure evolution. It is found that manufacture transfer-in generally aggravate city＇ s environment pollution and the effect differs among different manufacture sectors. The transfer- in of daily consumer goods manufacturing, agricultural products manufacturing and heavy chemical products manufacturing significantly aggravate environmental pollution. While the transfer-in of tech-intensive products manufacturing and durable consumer goods manufacturing will alleviate increment of environmental pollution, but the impact is statistically insignificant.