中日舆情变化的影响因素——基于GMM模型

The Influence Factors for the Change of Sino-Japanese Public Opinion——Based on GMM Model

【目的/意义】近年来,中日舆情恶化严重,而目前对其影响因素的研究仍停留在经验分析层面,亟需以科学方法来抓取其中的真因,从而为改善中日关系提供有效的建议。【方法/过程】基于国际传播理论,以调查数据作为分析样本,选取历史、军事、人文交流、经贸等具有代表性的影响因素作为分析变量,通过SPSS软件进行相关性分析,得出相关性系数较高的变量;再利用Eviews软件,通过逐步回归检验的方式进行广义矩估计,最终得出中日舆情变化的关键性影响因素。【结果/结论】研究结果显示,中日GDP比值、日本军费占GDP比值、日本首相参拜靖国神社、中国赴日旅游人数等是影响中日舆情变化的关键因素。基于此,进一步探讨了中日关系改善的可能路径。

【Purpose/significance】In recent years, Public Opinion between China and Japan is deteriorating, and the influence factors research is still at the experience level, It is necessary to find the real cause of this phenomenon with scantific method so as to provide effective suggestions for the improvement of Sino-Japanese relations.【Methods/processes】Based on the theory of international communication,taking survey data as sample, selecting factors of history, military, cultural exchanges, economic and trade representative as analysis variables, correlation analysis was carried out by SPSS software,and the higher correlation and coefficient variables were found.Then using Eviews software, by GMM through stepwise regression test, the key influence factors for the change of Sino-Japanese public opinion were found.【Result/conclusion】The results show that the ratio of Sino-Japanese GDP, Japanese military expenditure, GDP ratio, Japanese Prime Minister’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine and the number of Chinese tourists to Japan are the key factors that affect the change of Sino-Japanese public opinion. Based on this, the possible path to improve Sino-Japanese relations is further explored.