中国产业结构变迁中“逆库兹涅茨化”效应测量及分析

Measurement and Analysis on the “Inverse Kuznets Theory” Effects in China's Industrial Structure Evolution

研究目标:对中国产业结构变迁中"逆库兹涅茨化"效应问题进行测量和分析。研究方法:借鉴马塞尔增长源分解模式,构建基本模型,推导产业结构"逆库兹涅茨化"效应的具体测算公式并做实证分析。研究发现:由农民工回流及农业劳动份额增长而引起的"逆库兹涅茨化"效应没有被发现;由劳动力从工业转移到服务业而引起的"逆库兹涅茨化"效应显著;就经济整体而言,我国产业结构变迁所引起的"逆库兹涅茨化"现象不明显。我国产业结构的调整方向与有利于提高生产率的方向相契合。研究创新:给出了测算中国产业结构的"逆库兹涅茨化"效应的具体公式与判断依据。研究价值:模型具有研究产业结构质量与经济发展速度之间关系的宽泛用途。

Research Objectives： This paper is to measure and analyze the ＂Inverse Kuznets Theory＂ effects in China＇s industrial structure evolution. Research Methods： Based on Massell＇s mod- el, two basic models are built to get suitable formulas to evaluate ＂Inverse Kuznets Theory＂ effects. Research Findings： ＂Inverse Kuznets Theory＂ effect caused by rural migrant work- ers＇ backflow or agricultural labor share growth was not found. ＂Inverse Kuznets Theory＂ effect caused by labor force shift from industry to service industry was significant. For the e- conomy as a whole, ＂Inverse Kuznets Theory＂ effects are not obvious. The direction of in- dustry structure adiustment in China is in line with the goal to improve the whole productivi- ty. Research Innovations： This paper gives specific formulas and judgment to evaluate ＂Inverse Kuznets Theory＂ effects. Research Value： The model or method can be used widely to study relationship between industrial structure quality and economic development speed.