我国财政政策对产业结构优化的时变效应

The Time-varying Effects of Fiscal Policy on Industrial Structure Optimization in China

研究目标:财政政策对产业结构优化的时变性影响。研究方法:构建带有随机波动率的时变参数因子扩展向量自回归模型,进而通过三维脉冲响应展开时变性分析。研究发现:财政政策对产业结构优化确实产生了时变效应,在经济衰退时期,应该增加财政支出、提高投资性支出占比,结合小幅度减税、提高营业税和消费税占比;在经济平稳时期,应该减少税收、提高营业税占比、降低增值税占比,结合小幅度增加财政支出、提高投资性支出占比、降低一般公共服务支出占比;在经济高涨时期,应该增加财政支出、提高科技支出和投资性支出占比,结合小幅度减税、提高所得税占比、降低营业税占比。研究创新:应用时变参数计量模型研究了财政政策对产业结构优化的时变效应。研究价值:有助于重新认识财政政策与产业结构优化的关系。

Research Objectives： The time-varying effects of fiscal policy on industrial structure op- timization are tested in this paper. Research Methods： We construct a factor-augmented vec- tor autoregressive model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility, and make three dimensional impulse responses based on this model. Research Findings： The fiscal pol- icy indeed makes time-varying effects on industrial structure optimization. When it is in the period of economic recession, we should increase fiscal expenditure, increase the rate of in- vestment expenditure, and reduce tax revenue, increase the rate of business tax and con- sumption tax. In the stable economy period, we should reduce tax revenue, increase the rate of business tax, reduce the rate of value-added tax, and increase fiscal expenditure, in- crease the rate of investment expenditure, and reduce the rate of general public service ex- penditure. In the period of economic prosperity, we should increase fiscal expenditure, in- crease the rate of technology expenditure and investment expenditure, and reduce tax reve- nue, increase the rate of income tax, reduce the rate of business tax, which is beneficial to promoting industrial structure optimization. Research Innovations： Adopt a time-varying pa- rameter model to study the time-varying effects of fiscal policy on industrial structure optimization. Research Value： It is helpful to re-understand the relationship between the fiscal policy and industrial structure optimization.