摘要
文章利用上海市1984—2016年的时间序列数据，采用VAR的计量经济学模型，对外贸易和港口物流发展的关系进行实证分析。文章的研究结果显示，对外贸易的发展在短期对港口物流的发展有促进效应，但是在长期，这种促进效应并不明显；而港口物流对对外贸易的发展具有明显的促进作用，而且这种促进关系长期稳定存在。
Based on the time series data of Shanghai from 1984 to 2016, this paper uses the econometric model of VAR., the relationship between foreign trade and port logistics development. The results of the study show that the development of foreign trade has a positive effect on the development of port logistics in the short term, but it is not obvious in the long run, and the port logistics has obvious effect on the development of foreign trade. Promote long-term stability exists.
作者
郑素珍
Zheng Suzhen(Xi＇an University of Finance and Economics, Xi＇an 710100, China)
关键词
实证分析
对外贸易
港口物流
empirical analysis
foreign trade
port logistics
