我国房地产投资规模对货币传导机制的影响——基于VADL模型的分析

The Impact of China＇s Real Estate Investment Scale on Currency Transmission Mechanism： An Analysis -Based on VADL Model

本文利用2007-2016年的季度数据根据变系数自回归分布滞后（VADL）模型，就中国房地产投资规模对货币传导机制的影响进行实证分析。分析结果表明。季度房地产开发投资额的最优比重约为13．17％．季度居民中长期消费贷款的最优比重约为11．14％。根据最优比重确定合理的房地产投资规模区间有效调控房地产投资增量，对我国房地产经济发展具有重要意义。

Based on the quarterly data of 2007-2016, this paper analyzes the impact of China＇s real estate investment scale on the currency transmission mechanism according to the variable- coefficient autoregressive distribution lag （VADL） model. The results show that the optimal proportion of quarterly real estate development investment is about 13.17%, and the optimal proportion of medium and long term consumer loans is about 11.14%. According to the optimal proportion to determine the reasonable scale of real estate investment to effectively control the real estate investment increment, the real estate economy in China is of great significance.