城市化进程中流入地城市规模对流动人口生育意愿的影响

The Effect of the Urban Scale on the Migrants' Fertility Intention During the Urbanization

城市化对降低生育意愿起着关键性作用。在我国处于低生育水平时期,人们的生育意愿主要集中在是否生育二孩的意愿上。利用全国流动人口监测数据分析后发现:农村流动人口流向不同规模的城市,他们在二孩生育意愿上也存在差异,基本趋势是流入地城市规模越大,流动人口二孩生育意愿越低。城市化降低生育意愿的机制除了通过农村人口向城市的流动来降低生育意愿,还存在于不同规模的城市对流动人口生育意愿降低程度的不同。我国流动人口向大城市聚集的流动特点加剧了生育意愿的降低程度。

Urbanization is a key factor in lowering the fertility intention in modern society. The changes of the migrants＇ fertility intention show the dynamic of urbanization in lowering the fertility intention. Basic on the migrants＇ data in china, it has been found that migrants＇ fertility intention is different among the different sized cities, the bigger city is, the lower migrants＇ fertility intention is. The dynamics of urbanization in lowering fertility intention exits in the difference among the cities besides the difference between the urban and rural. The ways of urbanization that migrants flow into the big cities have pushed down the migrates＇ fertility intention.