市场化发展、信用违约与市政债券风险防范:基于美国的经验

Market-oriented Development,Credit Default and Municipal Bond Risk Prevention:Based on American Experience

历经多年发展,我国地方政府债券进入了"自发自还"阶段,但存在总体规模较大、发债期限错配、市场流动性不足、辅助制度不完善等风险。通过对美国市政债券的发行状况、投资者结构、收益水平、期限结构的多角度分析,对其违约事件、违约概率、违约分布的多指标考察,对其监管体系和三位一体的风险防范机制的剖析,认为市政债券与城镇化发展相生相伴,市政债券市场需要丰富的差异化产品,需要广泛的投资者和合理的期限结构,需要优惠的税收政策支持。

At present, local governments have been allowed to issue bonds and repay by themselves in china. But there still exists a lot of risks, for example, the large issuance scale, mismatching bond period, insufficient market liquidity, incomplete auxiliary measures and so on. By analyzingthe issue status, investors structure, rate of return, term structure and the default events, default probability, default distribution of US municipal bonds, the paper be- lieves that municipal bonds and urbanization accompanies each other, and the bond market needs a wealth of differen- tiated products, needs a wide range of investors and a reasonable term structure, and what＇s more, it needs a prefer- ential tax policy support.