山东省工业产能利用率测度及影响因素分析

Study on Industrial Capacity Efficiency Measurement and Affecting Factors of Shandong Province

本文利用Bootstrap-DEA模型对山东省2000—2015年产能利用率进行测算,对不同行业进行比较,并探讨了产能利用率的影响因素。结果显示:在Bootstrap-DEA方法测算下山东省工业产能利用率普遍呈现先增后减"倒U形"变化趋势。分行业来看,轻工业产能利用率与重工业具有相近的变化趋势,但在2012年以前重工业产能利用率值高于轻工业,2012年以后则轻工业利用率值高于重工业,且差距不断拉大;高耗能行业产能利用率自2011年以来持续较快下降,与轻重工业差距不断拉大。在影响因素方面,经济周期对产能利用率具有正向影响,金融发展程度对产能利用率虽有一定的负向影响,但总体具有正向作用,国企比重过高及政府投资过度对产能利用率具有负面影响。

This paper estimated capacity efficiency of Shandong province between 2000 and 2015 based on Boot- strap-DEA model, through comparing different capacity efficiency among industries, the paper also explored the fac- tors affecting capacity efficiency. By using the Bootstring-DEA method, the efficiency is significantly improved.Ac- cording to the method of Bootstrap-DEA, the industrial capacity efficiency in Shandong province is generally present- ed with the trend of ＂inverted U-shape＂, in which 31.5% of the industrial capacity efficiency in 2015 is less than 50%. In terms of industries, the capacity efficiency of light industry and heavy industry has similar variation tendency, but before 2012, the efficiency value of heavy industry was higher than light industry. After 2012, the efficiency value of light industry was higher than that of heavy industry, and the gap was widening;The capacity efficiency of energy-in- tensive industries has been declining rapidly since 2011, and the gap between the efficiency value of the heavy and light industry and the efficiency of energy-intensive industries has been widening.Among the affecting factors, the eco- nomic cycle and the degree of financial development have a positive effect on capacity efficiency, while the excessive proportion of state-owned enterprises and excessive government investment have a negative impact on capacity efficien- cy.