摘要
针对海外保障基地面临的自然风险,在风险辨识基础上,构建了风险评价指标体系和海外保障基地自然风险的贝叶斯网络评估模型,并进行了情景模拟下的量化实验评估。针对目前贝叶斯网络评估过程中的群决策和决策偏好问题,引入了犹豫层次分析思想来优化计算指标风险隶属度,改进了评估过程中的客观性和适用性。
Focusing on the natural risk faced by the overseas support bases, the paper structured the risk assessment system and the Bayes network model based on the risk identification, which used to make quantitative evaluation in scenario simulation. In order to solve the problem of deficiencies of group decision making and decision preference in the process of evaluation with Bayes network, the paper used the Hesitant Analytic Hierarchy Process to evaluate the risk memberships,improving the objectivity and applicability of the process.
出处
《海洋通报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第5期504-511,537,共9页
Marine Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金(41276088)
关键词
风险评估
海外保障基地
贝叶斯网络
犹豫层次分析
risk assessment
overseas support bases
The Bayes network
Hesitant Analytic Hierarchy Process