邯郸冬小麦干热风发生规律及风险预报

Dry-hot Wind:Occurrence Regularity and Risk Forecast for Winter Wheat in Handan

干热风是影响小麦产量和品质的农业气象灾害,对其研究意义重大。笔者利用邯郸气象资料和小麦产量数据,采用趋势预测和统计方法,对干热风发生规律及其风险预报进行了研究。结果表明:邯郸轻度干热风一年两遇,重度干热风一年一遇,西部山区和平原北部是轻度干热风灾害的高风险区,平原东部和中部是重度干热风灾害的高风险区;通过相对气象产量百分率与气温、湿度和风速等气象因子的相关分析进行干热风风险预报因子的初选,采用逐步回归方法,建立干热风风险预报方程。风速和最高气温是影响邯郸冬小麦生长后期的关键因子,可以进行邯郸干热风灾害风险预报。

Dry-hot wind is one of the agricultural meteorological disasters affecting the yield and quality of wheat.The authors adopted the trend prediction and statistical method to study the occurrence regularity and risk forecast of dry-hot wind,by using the meteorological data and the wheat yield information in Handan.The results showed that：mild dry-hot wind happened twice a year,while severe dry-hot wind happened once a year,and the western mountainous and northern plain regions were the high risk areas for mild dry-hot wind,while the central and eastern plain regions were the high risk areas for severe dry-hot wind;the forecast factors for dry-hot wind risk were first selected through the correlationship analysis between the relative meteorological yield rate and meteorological variables including temperature,humidity and wind speed;the dry-hot wind risk forecast equation was then established using the stepwise regression method.Based on the equation,wind speed and the highest temperature were found to be key factors affecting winter wheat growth during later growth stage.