电力变压器投资决策技术风险的财务影响评估

Financial Impact Assessment of Power Transformer Investment Decision Technology Risks

全寿命周期成本测算是一种经济分析过程,它评估产品从购置、拥有到处置的所有成本,计入将所有未来成本折算为净现值所需的折旧(净现值NPV或者成本)。为了做好全面分析,必须对变压器全寿命期内可能发生的成本进行很好的预测。有些成本是显而易见的,很容易被计算出(如铁芯损耗),而很多其他类型成本却要么无充分依据,或者尚未为人所知,特别是有些与故障风险相关的成本。除了原料成本之外,故障所导致的计划外检修可能会产生更为严重的财务和责任后果。因此对这种后果所致风险的正确评估是任何一个变压器群组资产管理战略的基石。从不同方案的各种角度,小故障、大故障、防火和运维成本增加等,审视几种典型变压器案例。同时,按照故障风险的净现值水平对不同投资选择(维持现状,更换或者修理)的财务优点进行比较。

The life cycle cost estimation is a kind of economic analysis, which evaluates all costs from product purchasing, possessing and disposing, and includes the depreciation needed for reducing all future costs to net present value （NPV）. In order to do a thorough analysis, it is necessary to estimate the possible cost of the transformer in its lifetime. Some cost is obvious, easy to calculate （e. g. , core loss）, and many other types of costs either have no sufficient basis, or are unknown so far, especially those costs associated with the fault risk. In addition to the cost of raw materials, unscheduled maintenance resulting from failures may result in more serious financial and liability consequences. Therefore, the correct assessment of the risk of these outcomes is the cornerstone of any transformer group asset management strategy. From various angles of different schemes, such as small faults, big faults, fire prevention and operation and maintenance costs, etc. , this paper examines some typical transformer cases. At the same time, the financial advantages of different investment options （maintenance, replacement or repair） are compared according to the NPV level of the fault risk.