农业保险微观效用与粮食安全的关联度

Correlation between Micro-effect of Agricultural Insurance and Grain Security

选择粮食主产区的安徽省15个区县的574户粮食种植户进行实地调查,通过相关性分析、因子分析和逐步回归等方法,就收入风险与保险意识对农业保险微观效用的影响进行探讨,研究发现:在土地流转和农户群体分化背景下,新型农业经营主体面临收入来源的单一化和收入风险的集聚化,收入结构的变动已然成为影响农户收入风险和保险效用的核心变量;农户保险意识受自身认知水平与农耕经验所限,保险意识对保险效用的影响大于收入变动风险。为此,一方面须关注从普惠制的农业保险向精耕细作的农业风险管理模式转变,不仅要为农户群体提供基本的事后风险融资与损失补偿,更要面向新型农业经营主体开发多样化的、全方位的农业风险管理工具;另一方面须在遵从农业供给侧改革的大背景下,发挥保险经营机构的风险测度与精算技术优势,积极进行农业保险的险种创新。

574 questionnaires to crop producers in 15 districts and counties of Anhui province, which is the major crop producing area, were collected. Then the influence of income risk and insurance awareness on micro-utility of agricultural insurance was discussed by means of correlation analysis, factor analysis and stepwise regression. The conclusions find that in the background of land circulation and crop producers ＇ differentiation, the new agricultural business entities are facing the restriction of the income source and the centralization of the income risk. And the changes of income structure have already become the kernel variable which affects crop producers ＇ income risk and insurance utility. Moreover, crop producers＇ insurance awareness is limited by their own cognitive level and planting experience and the effect of insurance consciousness on insurance utility is greater than that of income risk.Accordingly, we should strategically focus on the changes from the generalization of agricultural insurance to the specialization of agricultural risk management. We should not only provide basic risk financing and loss compensation afterwards for the crop producers, but also develop diversified tools of agricultural risk management for the new agricultural business entities. In the background of the agricultural supply side reform, we should tactically take the advantage of risk measurement and actuarial technology of insurance institutions, and then actively carry out the innovation of agricultural insurance products.