装备研制项目风险网络节点重要度评估

Importance Evaluation of Risk Network Node in Equipment Development Project

装备研制过程充满了各种不确定性因素,导致风险丛生。为有效管理装备研制项目的风险,确保装备研制项目的顺利完成,需要不断创新风险管理方法和手段。通过提取装备研制项目风险因素,采用解释结构模型法(ISM)构建风险网络结构,基于网络结构确定各节点的节点度、聚类系数和介数,基于DEMATEL方法确定节点中心度,构成四维评估参数,通过熵权集结上述参数,实现对风险网络节点重要度的评估。从多维度考察风险因素的重要度,能得到更为客观的评估结果,研究结论为基于重要节点的杠杆式风险控制策略的制定提供了决策参考。

Equipment development project process is full of various uncertainty factors,leading torisk. In order to effectively manage the risk of equipment development project,to ensure the successfulcompletion of the equipment development project,we need to constantly innovate risk managementmethods and means. By extracting equipment development project risk factors,using the structuremodel method（ISM）to construct the risk of network structure,the network structure determines thenumber of node degree,clustering coefficient and dielectric based on each node,based on theDEMATEL method to determine the node centrality. These data constitute four-dimensional evaluationparameters. The nodes importance of risk are evaluated through entropy aggregation of the parameters.It can get more objective evaluation results from the multi dimension study of the importance of riskfactors,and the research conclusions provide the decision-making reference for the development of thelever type risk control strategy based on the important nodes.