房价与土地价格、货币供应量及国际资本流入关系的实证分析

Empirical Study on the Relationship between House Price and Land Price, Money Supply and International Capital Inflow

选取2005年1月至2016年12月的月度数据,实证检验了房价与土地价格、货币供应量和国际资本流入之间的关系。实证结果表明房价受自身前期的一致性预期影响最大,地价对房价的影响稍弱,货币供应量及国际资本流入对房价的影响是短期的且幅度较小。建议房价的调控一方面可从严厉的政策改变房价上涨预期入手,另一方面要限制地价,尽早出台房地产税。加快各种金融投资渠道的发展,引导房地产资金"脱虚向实"及密切监控当今高房价下的资金外逃。

Based on the monthly data from January 2005 to December 2016,this paper empirically tests the relationship between house price and land price,money supply and intemational capital inflow.The results show that prices affected by the self consistency of the pre expected impact, premium weaker impact on prices, money supply and international capital inflows are short-term impact on prices and to a lesser extent.On the one hand,the proposed price regulation from the real estate prices are expected to change the policy of strict expectations, on the other hand to limit land prices,the introduction of property tax as soon as possible.Accelerate the development of a variety of financial investment ch＇a^els,guide real estate funds from the virtual economy into the real economy and close monitoring of capital flight in the high prices.