人民币实际有效汇率变动对上海市进出口贸易影响的实证研究

Impact of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate on Shanghai's Import and Export

为了研究实际有效汇率变动如何影响上海市的进出口,采用定性分析与实证分析相结合的方法,分析实际有效汇率、上海市收入和国外收入与上海市进出口贸易的关系。研究发现,从长期来看,实际有效汇率与上海市进口、出口具有反向关系,上海市收入、国外收入与上海市进口、出口具有正向关系;从短期来看,除上海市收入外,解释变量与被解释变量之间具有相反的关系,但是短期内没有通过显着性检验。最后提出改善上海市进出口贸易的建议。

For studying the impact of REM Real Effective Exchange Rate on Shanghal＇s rate and export, the paper analyses the relations between the real effective exchange rate and Shanghai＇s import and export by combining qualitative analysis and empirical analysis.The results show that： in the long-term,both import and export exchange rates elasticity are negative,the revenue coefficient is positive;In the short-term, the relationship is opposite between the explaining and the explained variables,except Shanghai＇s GDP,but the effect is not sensitive.Through the analysis above, the paper put forward policy suggestions for improving the Shanghai＇s import and export trade.