1978年以来的辽宁省粮食生产波动——基于周期性特征与影响因素的分析

Fluctuation of Grain Production in Liaoning Province Since 1978:Periodic Characteristics and Influencing Factors

研究粮食生产波动的规律、特征及成因对于保障粮食安全、稳定粮食生产具有重要意义。辽宁省作为粮食主产区之一,为明确其发展规律,确保经济社会发展对不断增长的粮食的需求,根据1978—2014年辽宁省粮食生产的相关数据,运用剩余法分析了其粮食生产波动的特征,结果表明:(1)1978—2014年辽宁省粮食生产波动指数较高,波动幅度较大;(2)通过1985—2014年辽宁省粮食生产的回归结果,实证分析确定了影响粮食产量波动的主要因素,是由粮食成灾面积、化肥施用量、粮食播种面积共同影响造成的,其中成灾面积对粮食产量波动的影响最明显。最后结合辽宁省粮食生产的实际情况,提出合理规划土地利用、加强农田水利和节水农业设施建设、优化施肥投入等针对性对策,以实现粮食产量质的提高,稳定粮食生产、减少粮食生产波动。

The study on the laws,characteristics and cause of grain production fluctuation has significance on ensuring food security and keeping stable grain production.According to the relevant data of grain production from 1978 to 2014 in Liaoning Province,this paper analyzes the characteristics of the grain production fluctuation by using the method of residues,and clarifies its development laws in Liaoning Province.The results show that：（1）the fluctuation of grain production in Liaoning Province from 1978 to 2014 has a higher index and larger range;（2）from the regression results and the empirical analysis of grain production in Liaoning Province from 1985 to 2014,this paper finds out that the inundated area of grain,fertilizer consumption and grain acreage mainly affect the fluctuation of grain production,among which the influence of inundated area of grain is the most obvious.Finally,combining with the actual situation of grain production in Liaoning Province,this paper puts forward the pertinent countermeasures such as reasonable planning of land utilization,strengthening the irrigation and water conservancy and water-saving agricultural infrastructure and optimizing fertilizer inputs to improve production quality,keep stable production and reduce the fluctuation.