基于生理发育时间的水稻发育期预测方法

Forecasting Method of Rice Phenology Stage Based on Physiological Development Period

水稻发育期模型研究是开展现代农业气象服务工作的基础。基于作物生理发育时间守恒原理,综合考虑温度和日长因子对水稻发育期的影响,利用云南省12个农气观测站2011—2014年水稻发育期观测和地面气象观测资料,分别构建并验证了适用于籼稻种植区和粳稻种植区的发育期预报模型。结果表明,2套模型在全发育期和各发育阶段的预报值与观测值模拟效果总体较好,平均全发育期RMSE值为7.47,RE值为7.99%,粳稻模型和籼稻模型的RE值分别为6.49%和9.5%,粳稻区模拟效果优于籼稻区。模型生物学意义明确、参数通用性强,适用于农业气象业务服务中水稻发育期预测,具有推广应用价值。

Rice phenological models are the bases of modern agro-meteorological service. Based on theconservation principle of crop physiological development stage, considering the influences of climatic variables（i.e. temperature, sunshine hours and so on） on rice phenological stage, we built and verified the phenologicalforecasting model which was suitable for indica rice and japonica rice planting region, using the observationaldata during rice phenology stage and ground meteorological data（2011-2014） from 12 agro-meteorologicalstations of Yunnan. The results showed that： both prediction and observation value of indica and japonica ricephenological prediction models had good performance with averaged root-mean-square error（RMSE） of 7.47 and relative error（RE） of 7.99%; the relative error（RE） was higher in indica rice phenological prediction model（9.5%） than that in japonica rice phenological prediction model（6.49%）, implying better simulation in japonica rice region than that in indica rice region. Therefore, the crop phenological model is biologically based and ofuniversal parameters, which is applicable for agro-meteorological service.