区域杠杆、经济增长与金融稳定——基于空间面板杜宾模型的研究

Regional Leverage,Economic Growth and Financial Stability——Based on Research of Spatial Panel Tobit Model

文章基于全国30个省际2010~2015年的面板数据,采用SDM空间杜宾面板数据模型对区域杠杆率、经济增长与金融稳定之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:我国地区总杠杆率水平存在空间扩散效应,经济增长、经济结构改善、金融业发展、人力资源优化等多方面协同能够降低杠杆率水平,而金融杠杆波动所导致的金融不稳定亦会引致去杠杆效应。上述结论具有比较确切的政策启示:首先,应充分认识稳增长、调结构与去杠杆的辩证关系,秉持区域禀赋原则实行差异化政策;其次,地方监管部门应协同防范金融杠杆率过度波动,避免暴力去杠杆诱发债务通缩,并进而引致金融体系不稳定和系统性金融风险的发生;最后,深化金融体系改革,发挥地区优势,推动金融业切实服务实体经济。

This article,based on the panel data from 30provinces in China for the period 2010-2015,by adopting SDM spatial Tobit panel,conducts a positive analysis on the relationship among regional leverage rate,economic growth and financial stability.The research findings show that the general regional leverage rate in China has the spatial spreading effect,the synergy among many factors such as economic growth,improvement of economic mix,development of banking sector and optimization of human resources,can reduce the leverage rate,whereas financial instability caused by financial leverage fluctuations can also lead to the effect of deleverage.The conclusion bears clear policy inspirations:First,we should fully realize the dialectical relationship between stabilizing growth,adjusting structure and deleverage,and adopt different policies based on the principle of regional natural endowment;Secondly,local regulators should work together to prevent the over-fluctuation in financial leverage rate,and avoid leading to debt deflation due to violent deleverage which may lead to instability of financial system and breakout of systemic financial risks;lastly,efforts should be made to deepen reform of financial system,give play to regional advantage and promote financial industry to effectively serve real economy.