四川省2000-2015年生态足迹及其驱动力分析

Ecological Footprint and Its Driving Force Analysis in Sichuan Province during 2000—2015

文章通过选取四川省2000-2015年生物资源和能源消费数据,利用生态足迹模型对四川省的生态足迹、生态承载力和生态赤字的动态变化特征进行了详细地分析,并在此基础上,运用主成分分析方法和逐步回归模型研究了引起生态足迹增长的驱动因素.结果显示,四川省2000-2015年人均生态足迹表现出持续增长的趋势,而人均生态承载力的变化趋势基本保持稳定,故人均生态赤字呈增长趋势,表现出相对不可持续的发展状态.驱动力分析结果显示,城镇化率是四川省生态足迹增长最重要的驱动因子,城镇化发展,一方面带来了大量的投资和消费,导致了资源需求的增长;另一方面,将大量的耕地及生态用地转变为建设用地,导致生态承载力的减少,从而扩大了生态赤字.故在城镇化的发展过程中,实现区域的可持续发展,必须加大技术创新,调整产业结构,节约资源和提高能源的利用效率.

Based on the ecological footprint model and the data of biological resources and energy consumption between 2000 and 2015,an analysis is done to the dynamic change features in terms of the ecological footprint, the ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit in Sichuan province, also discussed were the driving factors prompting the ecological footprint growthby the method of principal component analysis and stepwise regression model. The results showed that the ec-ological footprint per capita kept growing during 2000 - 2015 in Sichuan Province, while the ecological carrying capacity per ca-pita remained basically stable. Therefore the ecological deficit in Sichuan Province in this periodunderwent an increasing trend, which indicated that the current development status of Sichuan Province was becoming unsustainable. It is found that the ur-banization rate is the biggest driving force causing ecological footprint growth in Sichuan Province. Urbanizationbringswith it lots of investment and consumption which leads to drastic demand for resources and at the same time lots of cultivated land and ecological land was converted into construction land, which resulted in the decrease of ecological carrying capacity and enlarged ecological deficit. Therefore in the process of urbanization, sustainable development must be achieved through technological in-novation, adjustmentof the industrial structure, resources conservation and heightened efficiency of energy utilization.