石化企业平面布局多米诺效应指标表征研究

Study on the Characterization of the Domino Effect Index of the Plane Layout of Petrochemical Enterprises

多米诺效应是导致石化企业火灾、爆炸及中毒事故后果扩大的根本原因,往往会引起事故损失成倍增长,而合理的平面布局设计可以大幅降低企业的多米诺效应风险。本文在前人研究的多米诺效应评估指标基础上,结合源发事故单元事故场景发生概率、多米诺事故扩展概率,以及目标单元事故强度等概念,构建了基于源发事故单元及目标单元多米诺风险的表征表达式,进一步构建了评估整体布局多米诺风险的评估指标并给出了具体的实施程序,用于评估单元和整个布局的多米诺风险。研究表明该法能够反映厂区布局多米诺特征,对于持续完善多米诺评估指标研究工作以及工程建设初期的布局草案筛选具有一定意义。

Domino effect is the most essential cause that leads to the expansion of fires, explosion and poisoning in the petrochemical industry, it will make the loss of accidents doubled and the reasonable layout of the plane can remarkably reduce the occurrence of the Domino accident. Thus, this paper discusses and tries to improve the theory of Domino effect evaluation index based on the previous studies. From the angle of chain risk of accident, to the begin, it is critical to analyze the scene of Domino accident to select all possible accidents. In the second, it is of importance to choose a certain method to determine the probability of accident scene. At the last, the probability of accident ex- pansion and the risk of Domino unit and target unit are calculated based on introducing the probability Of accident scene and Domino probability mode and the concept of target unit accident intensity. At the same time, further study is conducted to assess the risk of the unit and the entire layout of the Domino. Examples in this paper show that the method can reflect the characteristics of the layout of the plant in the plant area of Domino. It has a certain significance for the continuous improvement of the evaluation index of Domino research work and the initial layout of the project construction.