摘要
长期来看，中国的化肥使用量呈现出”总量增长，结构改变，区域差异未见缩小”的特点，并有一定程度的过量使用现象。1985-2014年，化肥投入显著增加了粮食产量，播种面积增加也起到相同促进作用。而机械投入、乡村就业人数、自然灾害的增加将对粮食增产起到反向影响。未来治理化肥投入过量的关键在于提高化肥利用率，实现化肥的科学使用，形成粮食丰产，农业发展与农民增收的局面，最终实现国家粮食安全保障的根本目标。
In the long run, the use of chemical fertilizers in China is characterized by ＂total amount growth, structural change, no difference in regional differences＂ and a certain degree of overuse. From 1985 to 2014, fertilizer inputs significantly increased food production, and the increase in sown area also played the same role in promoting. The increase in the number of rural workers and the increase in natural disasters will have a negative impact on food production. The key to investing excess fertilizer in the future is to improve the utilization rate of chemical fertilizers, realize the scientific use of chemical fertilizers, form the grain yield, agricultural development and farmers＂ income situation, and finally realize the basic goal of national food security guarantee.
作者
李辛一
Li Xinyi(School of Economics, Guizhou University, Guivang 550025. Chin)
基金
贵州省教育厅高校人文社会科学研究大学生项目（2016dxs17）,贵州大学研究生创新基金项目（研人文2016042）的阶段性科研成果.
关键词
化肥
长期特征
粮食产量
fertilizer
long - term characteristics
grain yield
