山东省淄博市手足口病预警研究

Study of early alert for hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Zibo city located in Shandong province

目的应用移动百分位数法开展淄博市手足口病的预警研究,以提高手足口病的预警效率和能力,为防控的关口前移提供理论依据。方法收集整理2011-2016年淄博市手足口病每周疫情资料,以移动百分位数法建立预警模型,通过计算比较各候选预警界值的灵敏度、特异度、约登指数及ROC曲线,优选出淄博市合适的手足口病预警界值。结果将2016年淄博市手足口病的预警界值确定为P95,能较好的发现暴发苗头,预警效果较佳,该预警界值下的灵敏度、特异度和约登指数分别为100.00%,97.96%和0.98。结论移动百分位数法可作为淄博市手足口病的预警方法,具有较好的预警功效,并能为本地其它重点传染病预警界值的研究提供参考,但需要根据不同疫情流行年份流行强度的差异适时进行调整。

Objective To explore the application of moving percentile method in early alert of hand-foot-and-mouth disease （HFMD） in Zibo, in order to improve the early detection capability and efficiency, and to provide evidences for pre-real-time prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The weekly data of HFMD from 2011-2016 in Zibo was collected for early alert model using moving percentile method, to select the optimal alert threshold by comparing sensitivity, specificity, Youden＇s index and ROC curve of all alternate thresholds. Results The optimal alert threshold of HFMD in Zibo was 95th percentile （P95）, and with the threshold of this early alert model＇s sensitivity, specificity, and Youden＇s index were 100.00%, 97.96% and 0.98, outbreak signs can be better detected by alert threshold of P95. Conclusions Moving percentile method achieved good effect at early alert of HFMD in Zibo, and can provide a reference for the study of early alert of other major infectious diseases, but it needs to be adjusted according to the epidemic years and intensity.