灰色模型在大庆市HIV流行趋势预测中的应用

Application of grey model in predicting epidemic tendency of HIV in Daqing City

目的分析大庆市2008-2015年HIV/AIDS流行趋势,探讨预测HIV感染率的灰色模型,为大庆市艾滋病的防治工作提供参考。方法采用描述流行病学方法对2008-2015年大庆市HIV/AIDS疫情数据进行分析。建立GM(1,1)预测模型,并进行模型评价,预测2016-2018年HIV感染率。结果 HIV/AIDS病例以男性为主,占93.08%。最有可能的感染途径为同性传播,占74.34%。HIV感染率的GM(1,1)预测模型为:Y=2.8674e^(0.2487t)-203132。其后验差比值C=0.23,小误差概率P=1,经本模型预测未来三年大庆市报告HIV感染率依次是4.62/10万,5.92/10万和7.59/10万。结论 GM(1,1)模型能很好地预测大庆市HIV感染率。未来三年大庆市HIV感染率将继续上升。

Objective Analyze epidemic tendency of HIV/AIDS in Daqing in 2008-2015, and discuss the grey model for predicting HIV infection rate, providing reference for the prevention and treatment of AIDS. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemic situation of HIV/AIDS in Daqing city in 2008-2015. The GM （1,1） prediction model was established, and the model was evaluated to predict HIV infection rate in 2016-2018. Results HIV/AIDS cases were mainly male, accounting for 93.08%. The most likely route of infection was homosexual transmission, accounting for 74.34%. GM （1,1） prediction model of HIV infection rate： r=33.9289e--30＇3510. Posterior difference ratio C =0.23, small probability of error P=I, the model predicted that the next three years, HIV infection rate was 4.62/10 million,5.92/10 million, and7.59/10 million. Conclusion GM （1,1） model can well predict the infection rate of H1V in Daqing. The next three years, Daqing HIV infection rate will continue to rise.