1987—2015年祁连山冰川退缩及未来变化趋势研究

Study on Glacier Retreat and Future Changes Trends in the Qilian Mountains during 1987-2015

利用1987和2015年Landsat遥感影像解译分析祁连山地区冰川变化,研究冰川变化的影响因素。结果表明,祁连山冰川退缩较为严重,面积从1987年的2 072.7 km2减少到2015年的1 506.3 km2,28年来总退缩率为27.3%,年均退缩率为0.98%;冰川存在一定的地形/温度分布差异,海拔在4 900~5 100 m,坡度为10°~20°,坡向以北和东北方向为主,夏季气温为3~5℃时,是冰川发育的聚集区;冰川退缩也存在一定的地形/温度分布差异,海拔4 200~4 300 m,坡度10°~20°,坡向南和东南方向,夏季气温小于2℃,是冰川退缩最快的区间。以温度为主导的模拟研究表明,研究区冰川未来15和30年退缩严重,退缩率分别达到10.9%和33.5%。

Glacier in the Qilian Mountains during the past 28 years were interpreted based on Landsat TM（ 1987） and OLI（2015） data. The coupling relationship between glacier retreat and influence factors were discussed. The results showed that the glaciers decreased in this area by 27. 3% between 1987（2 072.7 km2） and 2015（1 506. 3 km2） , and the annual percentage of area changes for the glacier was 0. 98% . The best condition of altitude for glacier ranged from 4 900 to 5 100 m, slope being 10° - 20° , north and northeast slope and summer temperature 3 - 5 ℃. The glacier retreat occured mainly at altitude ranged from 4 200 to 4 300 m , slope being 10o - 2 0° , south and southeast slope and summer temperature less than 2 ℃The results of the simulation study showed that the glaciers decreased in this area next 15 or 30 years was up to 10. 9% and 33. 5% respectively.