分布式光伏建设风险评估及商业模式探究

Study on Risk Assessment and Business Model of Small Distributed Photovoltaic Power Station Construction

针对用户侧小型分布式光伏具有容量小、技术维护能力弱、建设风险大的特点,提出了一种基于熵权法的建设风险评估方法,及探讨了其适应的商业模式。首先,从技术风险、政策风险、资金风险和管理风险四个方面提出了小型分布式光伏建设风险综合评估指标体系,并采用熵权法求解指标权重值;然后,依托北方居民楼某个3 k W光伏工程案例进行了风险评估分析;最后,基于实际工程的风险评估结论,探究自建自销、合同能源管理、用户和企业共建等三种商业模式在北方地区实施的可行性和适应性,以期为我国分布式光伏建设的推广应用提供借鉴。

The distributed photovoltaic power station has the characteristic of a small capacity, weak mainte- nance ability and large construction risk,this paper proposes a construction risk assessment for distributed photovoltaic power station based on entropy method, and discusses its business model. Firstly,in this paper from four aspects of the technical risk, policy risk, capital risk and management risk it puts forward the risk assessment index system of small distributed photovoltaic power station construction,and uses the entropy method to calculate the weight of each index system. Secondly,it analysis the risk assessment for a 3 kW photovoltaic engineering case in the northern residential building. Lastly,based on risk assessment conclu- sions ,it explores the feasibility and adaptability of business model in the areas of North China, which in- clude three kinds of self-marketing, energy performance contracting and user and enterprises construction, in order to provide the reference for the popularization and application of the distributed photovoltaic power station in China.