金融发展、出口替代与贸易失衡

Financial Development,Export Substitution and Trade Imbalance

在异质企业模型基础上,分析了金融发展对国际贸易的影响。结果表明,金融发展与出口贸易之间存在倒U型关系;当一国金融发展水平低于临界值时,金融发展会降低融资成本,促进出口贸易;而高于临界值时,金融发展会引起贸易成本的变化,从而导致企业对外直接投资(ODI)会替代出口,此时金融发展会减少出口贸易。进一步利用国际面板数据,利用实证方法证实了商品出口贸易与金融发展之间存在倒U型关系,ODI对出口有显著替代作用,金融发展会降低一国的贸易盈余,甚至引起国际收支逆差。

In this paper, the heterogeneous firm model is used to analyze influence of the financial de- velopment on international trade. Financial development will affect export in an inverted U - shape manner. When a country is at lower financial development level, further advancement of financial system will boost export. However, when the economy＇s financial system is developed enough to a certain level, further fi- nancial system improvement will no longer boost export significantly. International data proves that export and financial development have inverted U -shape relationship, ODI has obvious substitution effect on ex- port, and financial development can decrease a nation＇s trade surplus and even lead to international trade deficit.