不同经济状态下政府支出乘数的差异性研究

Study on Government Spending Multiplier under Different Economic Situation

鉴于我国财政支出政策具有非线性效应特征,最终在带交互效应的参数时变面板结构向量自回归模型(TVP-PSVAR)基础上的实证分析发现:经济过热及经济衰退时期,较低贸易开放度下政府投资支出政策效果更显著,其他正常时期较高贸易开放度下政府投资支出乘数较大;而整个样本区间内,较低贸易开放度下政府消费支出乘数更大。整个样本区间内,较低政府债务率都将导致较高的政府投资支出乘数及政府消费支出乘数。经济衰退时期,经济发展水平低的省份政府投资支出乘数更大,其他时期经济发展水平高的省份政府投资支出乘数更大;除了经济过热时期的其他样本区间内,较高经济发展水平的省份基本具有较高的政府消费支出乘数。

As the fiscal expenditure policy in China has the characteristics of non linear effect, this paper extends traditional PSVAR model to the TVP -PSVAR model to make an empirical analysis. The study shows that with the overheated economy and the economic downturn, government investment expenditure policy in provinces with lower trade openness is more significant, at other normal times government invest- ment expenditure multiplier is larger in provinces with higher trade openness, while in the whole sample in- terval, the government consumption expenditure multiplier is larger under the lower trade openness. In the whole sample period, lower government debt ratio will lead to higher government investment expenditure multiplier and government consumption expenditure multiplier. In economic recession, government invest- ment spending multiplier is greater in provinces with lower economic development. At other periods, invest- ment expenditure multiplier of governments with high economic development is larger. In addition to the e- conomic overheating periods, provinces with the higher of level economic development will have a higher government spending multiplier.