发射场设施设备可靠性的数据权重研究

Research of the Data Weighting about the Reliability of Launch Sites' Facilities and Equipment

由于发射场设施设备的特殊性,大多数设备和零部件缺少可靠性基础数据,且现有可靠性数据偏差较大,致使发射场系统难以开展概率安全评估(PSA)应用,为解决PSA评估需要的概率数据,本文通过研究多渠道可靠性数据综合处理方法解决基础数据不足或偏差大的问题。分析总结了多源可靠度数据的处理方法,采用层次分析法(AHP)综合评估了试验数据、标准数据、性能退化数据、经验数据等数据的重要度,并用证据理论验证了不同数据权重值的合理性,解决了目前发射场概率安全评估的前端输入问题。通过确定加注系统加注泵数据权重的算例,给出了详细计算过程。

Due to the particularity of launch site facilities, most of the equipment and parts without failure data, the Probabilistic Safety Assessment （PSA） of the launch site is difficult to achieve. According to different reliability data of facilities for the integration, reliability processing methods were summarized respectively, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） comprehensive assessment of importanc of test data, standards data, performance degradation data and experience data, with evidence theory to verify the rationality of different weight value data, solved the shooting probability safety assessment problem of the front end of the input. By the research of the data weight of filling pump in the filling system, the feasibility of this method was proved effective.