黑龙江省气候生产潜力时空演变特征研究

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Climatic Productivity Potential in Heilongjiang Province

气候生产潜力的时空变化规律不仅反映各气象因子与气候生产潜力之间的配合协调程度,还能对粮食生产决策起到决定性的指导意义。基于Thornthwaite Memorial模型估算了黑龙江省1986—2015年作物生育期内的气候生产潜力,分析了气候生产潜力与平均温度和降水量之间的关系。采用Morlet小波分析方法,对黑龙江省作物生育期内的气候生产潜力进行了多时间尺度特征分析和预测,并通过GIS软件拟合分析了黑龙江省作物生育期内气候生产潜力的空间变化特征。结果表明,1986—2015年作物生育期内黑龙江省气候生产潜力呈缓慢的降低趋势,变化趋势不显著,在7 012.143~11 680.771 kg·hm^(-2)·a^(-1)之间变化,平均值为9 390.362 kg·hm^(-2)·a^(-1);1986—2015年生育期内黑龙江省气候生产潜力具有显著的多时间尺度特征,存在7 a和10 a的主周期以及16 a的变化周期;拟合可知2016—2018年的气候生产潜力逐年递减,但均高于年平均值;黑龙江省生育期内气候生产潜力空间分布差异显著,以巴彦县为中心,气候生产潜力向四周逐渐递减,体现出较为明显的经度地带性,大部分地区热量条件相对充足,降水量是影响黑龙江省作物气候生产潜力的主要限制因子。

Heilongjiang region is one of the important commodity grain production bases in China. The rules of temporal and spatial variation of climate productivity potential not only reflect the coordination between meteorological factors and climatic potential productivity, but also play a decisive guiding role in the decision-making of grain production in this region. Climatic productivity potential during the growth period in Heilongjiang Province from 1986 to 2015 was estimated based on the Thornthwaite Memorial model and relationship between climatic productivity potential and temperature and precipitation was analyzed. Morlet wavelet analysis method was used to analyze and forecast the climatic productivity potential during the growth period in multi-time scales, and GIS software was applied to fit the spatial variation characteristics of climatic productivity potential in life circle of crops. Climatic productivity potential during the growth period in Heilongjiang Province decreased slowly from 1986 to 2015, and varied between 7 012.143~11 680.771 kg·hm-2·a-1, with an average of 9 390.362 kg·hm-2·a-1. Precipitation was the main limiting factor that affected the climatic productivity potential at growth stage of crops in Heilongjiang Province. Climatic productivity potential at growth stage of crops in Heilongjiang Province from 1986 to 2015 had characteristics of significant multi-time scale. The main cycle scales were 7 years and 10 years, and with a long period of 16 years. It is predicted that climatic productivity potential from 2016 to 2018 will be declining year by year, but it will be higher than the annual average. Spatial distribution of climatic productivity potential in Heilongjiang Province was significantly different. The climatic productivity potential at growth stage of crops was centered on Bayan County, and gradually diminished outward, showing distinct characteristics of longitude. The heat condition in most parts of Heilongjiang Province was relative sufficient, and precipitation was the main limiting meteorological factor affectingthe climatic productivity potential.