什么类型的地震能被预测?

What kinds of earthquakes can be predicted?

每当一次严重破坏性地震发生后,关于其能否被预测一直是备受争议的话题.本文基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,分析了能被预测的地震类型,指出:(1)在特定地震区地震目录完整且准确的情况下,除第1锁固段在体积膨胀点发生的标志性地震不能被预测外,后续标志性地震均能被预测;(2)利用次级锁固段破裂在"时间域"或"空间域"的自相似模式,可预测某些标志性预震.本文的研究结果表明,特定地震区内某些标志性地震与标志性预震,因其发生的物理机制明确且有规律可循,故能被预测;这些可预测地震仅与锁固段破裂对应的地震事件类型有关,而与其地震震级无关.

Whenever a severely destructive earthquake occurs,whether it can be predicted is always a controversial topic. Based on the theory about the brittle failures of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system,the types of earthquakes which can be predicted are analyzed. In the case of complete and accurate earthquake catalogue,the characteristic earthquakes in a defined seismic zone can be predicted,except one occurred at the volume expansion point of the first locked patch. By means of the ＂time domain＂ or ＂spatial domain ＂ self-similar pattern in the failure process of secondary-order locked patches, some characteristic preshocks can also be predicted. The present results show that the occurrence of some characteristic earthquakes and preshocks in a defined seismic zone, which can be predicted, follows a deterministic law,and that these predictable earthquakes are only related to the types of earthquakes resulting from failures of locked patches,but irrelevant to their magnitude values.