中国贫困村致贫因素分析及贫困类型划分

Contributing factors and classification of poor villages in China

精确度量行政村贫困特征是当前贫困精准识别及全面脱贫的国家战略需要。基于"十二五"期间全国"整村推进"贫困村数据,构建空间贫困视角下的多维贫困度量模型综合测算全国范围内贫困村的贫困程度,基于指标贡献度分解与线性回归方法挖掘贫困村的致贫因素,利用最小方差模型(LSE)区分贫困村的贫困类型,并结合空间计量分析技术揭示贫困村的空间分布分异特征,为面向2020年全面脱贫的国家战略提供辅助决策支撑。结果表明:(1)中国贫困村近一半处于中度贫困,且贫困程度与贫困规模存在显著的地域性。(2)通路情况较差、自然灾害频发、收入水平低下、劳动力状况不佳是中国贫困村的主要致贫因素,显著性指标包括通路率、地貌类型、遭受自然灾害频次、人均纯收入、劳动力比例、劳动力文化素质等。(3)中国贫困村整体呈多因素致贫,三因素支配型、四因素协同型、五因素联合型贫困分布相对较高。(4)"整村推进"扶贫工作初见成效,对促进贫困村可持续发展起到了较好的推进作用,但贫困村具有各自贫困特征,需进一步地因地制宜,因村施策,开展针对性帮扶工作。

It is a China＇s strategic demand to systematically and accurately measure the poverty characteristics of poverty-stricken areas from the perspective of village-level poverty. In this context, this paper constructs a multidimensional poverty evaluation model from the perspective of spatial poverty, and combines the decomposition of indicator contribution degree and linear regression method to explore poverty contributing factors. Then it adopts LSE（Least Square Error） model and geostatistics analysis model to classify the villages＇ poverty types and spatial distribution difference, so as to grasp the whole poverty characteristics, poverty contributing factors and poverty types of poor villages all over the country and to provide auxiliary decision-making support services for eradicate poverty in 2020. Taking 51461 villages in China as a case, we can draw some conclusions as follows：（1） The distribution of poverty-stricken villages has an obvious regional characteristic from the perspectives of poverty level and poverty size, and most poor villages are concentrated in contiguous destitute areas, showing a pattern of high in the west and low in the east. In view of poverty level, there exists an obvious olive-shaped structure of big in the middle and small on two sides, and nearly half of the poverty-stricken villages are moderately poor.（2） China＇s poor villages have four main poverty contributing factor dimensions, i.e., harsh transportation conditions, frequent natural disasters, low income and poor labor force qualities, of which, the significant poverty contributing factors are road access ratio, terrain type, suffered frequency of natural disaster,per capita net income, labor force ratio, ratio of illiterate labor forces, etc.（3） China＇s poor villages are driven by multiple poverty types, among which, those villages with three-factor dominated, four-factor collaborative and five-factor combined types have a relatively high proportion.（4） ＂Entire-village Advancement＂ poverty reduction strategy has achieved an initial performance, improved the village＇s sustainable development environment and raised the income of poor population. However, each village has its own poverty characteristics,therefore, anti-poverty measures should be adjusted according to its respective local conditions.