从右翼复兴看拉美政治中的“左退右进”态势

Rise of the Right:the New Political Trend in Latin America

拉丁美洲政治形势自世纪之交以来发生巨大变化。1998~2014年期间,"粉色浪潮"席卷大部分地区,左翼群体性崛起,右翼在选举中频频失利。2015年以来,"左退右进"态势凸显,左翼执政开始退潮,右翼复兴。拉美右翼复兴缘于诸多内外部因素,包括左翼政权的执政困境、右翼政党灵活的政治战略和温和务实的政策主张、中间阶层的扩张、美国的支持等。由于历史和现实的条件依然存在并继续发挥作用,拉美政坛在中短期内将继续向中右倾斜。当然,右翼执政面临严峻挑战,重振经济、促进民生、反腐和团结党内力量等方面的任务尤其艰巨。左翼并非一蹶不振甚或消亡,而是仍具实力和影响,有可能重新崛起。

From the year 2015 on,the political situation in Latin America has undergone dramatic changes. The "pink tide" ebbed,while the right came to power in important regional countries. This trend resulted from a series of factors,such as the plight of the left regimes,the flexible political strategies and pragmatic policies of the right political parties,the expansion of the middle class,the US support to the right,etc.. Since the historical and realistic conditions that promoted the revival of the right still play important roles,the right-turn trend in Latin America will continue in the short term. However,the new right regimes have to address pressing challenges,namely revitalizing the economy,improving the wellbeing of the poor,combating the corruption,bridging the difference and division inside the right camp,etc.. On the other hand,the left has not diminished,and a new round of left resurgence is still possible in the future.