风险指引型PSA应用的不确定性分析方法研究

Uncertainty Analysis in Risk-Informed Probabilistic Safety Assessment Applications

不确定性是这个世界上所有事物与生俱来的特征,本文深入探讨了核电厂PSA不确定性的来源及其分类,研究了参数的不确定性、建模的不确定性以及模型的不完备性的处理方法。结合风险指引型PSA应用相关技术导则、法律法规等文件中对不确定性的相关要求,分别给出了在风险指引PSA应用中此三类不确定性的分析方法和相关可接受准则。风险指引PSA应用的不确定性分析是应用申请中不可或缺的重要组成部分,可为综合决策者提供足够的技术支持。

Uncertainty is one of the inherent characteristics for all of the world things. This paper discussed in-depth the sources of uncertainty and their categories for nuclear power plant PSA, and provided guideline on the treatment of the processing and methodology of the parametric uncertainty, modeling uncertainty, and completeness uncertainty. Combination with the risk acceptance criteria, PSA application-related technical documents, regulations requirements, guidelines and other standards, given the three uncertainty analysis methods and associated acceptance criteria. Uncertainty analysis has become an important part and basis of the integrated decision-making, provided adequate confidence and technical supports for the decision-makers.