唐代两税法的经济效果——基于双重差分模型的实证分析

The Economic Outcome of the Reform of the Two Tax Law and Three Allotments in Tang Dynasty:An Empirical Analysis Based on the DID Model

唐代两税法明晰了中央和地方在财政上的权利与义务,具体包含两方面内容:一是明确了中央的税收立法权,中央与地方政府间财政关系更为明确,为中央获取定额化税赋收入提供了保障。二是通过中央与地方政府的博弈,实行了财政分权。本文利用天宝十二年(753)和元和三年(808)137个州的相关数据实证检验了唐代两税法的经济效果,以各州人口数量作为测度经济和社会发展水平的代理变量,以割据藩镇和被撤藩镇两个对照组构建双重差分模型,通过安慰剂检验进一步剔除影响人口数量变化的前定因素,结果表明:两税法产生了积极的经济效果。中央的税收立法权和地方相对独立的财政自主权是两税法产生正向经济效果不可或缺的必要条件。

From the perspective of adjusting the relationship between the central and local fiscal adjustment, the reform of two tax law and three allotments in Tang dynasty included two aspects. On the one hand, that the central government tried to withdraw partial fiscal authorities after the rebellion of An and Shi, which made the fiscal relations between the central and local government more clear. On the other hand, the local governments realized fiscal decentralization to a great extent stemmed from the reform of two tax law and three allotments. This paper uses the quasi-experimental historical evidence to examine the impact of the implementation of the two tax law and three allotments in the year of 780 on economic and social development between the year of 753 and 808 in 137 mansions. In this paper, we take the population size of every mansion as a proxy variable to measure the level of economic and social development. In the DID regression, we construct the control groups based on both the local separate military governors and with the eliminated military governors. On average, where effectively carried out the reform of both two tax law and three allotments significantly resulted in the higher level of economic and social development. The central tax legislation and the local ownership of relatively independent financial autonomy are two necessary conditions for the Two Tax laws to produce positive economic effects.