基于PPP模式城际铁路项目风险分担模型

Risk Allocation Model of Intercity Railway Projects Based on PPP Mode

随着我国"十三五"现代综合交通运输体系发展规划的出台,城际铁路建设步伐加快。采用PPP融资模式引入社会资本,既减轻政府财政压力、满足城际铁路建设融资需要,又满足社会发展需要。PPP模式下城际铁路项目存在投入资金量大、参与方角色关系复杂、项目建设周期较长等特点,在项目生命周期内存在诸多风险,因此PPP模式下城际铁路项目风险分担是否合理,采取的方法能否有效地促使各参与方控制风险,决定了项目的成败。本文将风险因素分为单一承担主体风险、政府及私营部门两方承担的风险:单一承担主体风险分担时,构建惩罚函数、风险控制成本补偿函数和风险控制奖励函数模型激励参与方尽力增强管理和控制风险的积极性,达到规避风险目的;因篇幅所限,城际铁路政府及私营部门两方承担的风险不做分析。

With the development planning of modern comprehensive transportation system of the 13 th Five-year Plan, the inter-city railway construction has been accelerating. The PPP financing model is adopted to introduce social capital, which may meet the financing needs of intercity railway construction and the needs of social development while reducing the financial pressure on the government. However, since there are such characteristics as large investment, complex relationship of participants and long construction period for intercity railway projects under PPP mode, many risks may exist in the whole project life cycle. The rationality of risk sharing and the risk control ability of participants largely determine the success or failure of the project. In this paper,risk factors are divided into two categories,namely the one of single-subject risk sharing and the other of government and private sectors risk sharing. In single-subject risk sharing, the model of penalty function, risk control cost compensation function and risk control incentive reward function were established to encourage participants to enhance the ability of management and risk controlling.