航班计划对延误波及变化的影响分析

Influence Analysis of Flight Schedule on Delay Propagation Variation

为了提高飞机利用率,航空公司在制定航班计划时会安排同一架飞机每天连续执行多个航班。当连续航班中的前序航班出现延误时,后续航班往往也会受到影响。为了研究航班计划对于航班延误波及传播的影响,构建了延误波及变化这一指标来反映延误波及增加或者减少的变动趋势。通过马尔科夫毯网络建立了航班计划的多个属性和延误波及变化的贝叶斯网络模型。利用列联表卡方检验揭示了航班计划中影响延误波及变化的主要因素为:相邻两个航段之间的计划过站时间和实际过站时间的差,前一个航段的航线类型,航段顺序。通过分析3个因素对于延误波及变化的影响,为航空公司控制延误波及和优化航班计划提出相应建议。

To improve the utilization rate of airplanes, airline companies may arrange for an airplane to perform multiple flights every day when making flight schedules. Amid sequential flights, subsequent flights are bound to be influenced by previous delayed flights. To evaluate the impacts of flight schedule on the flight delay propagation, an index of was proposed to reflect the increasing or decreasing tendency of delay propagation. A Markov Blanket Network was establishay, in cluding multiple attributes of flight schedules. Major factors influencing delay propagation variation of flight schedules were analyzed by using chi-square of contingency tables： the difference between scheduled connection time and actual connection time, the types of previous flight route and the orders of legs. The research shows that the analysis of the three major factors provides airline companies with some suggestions for controlling delay propagation and optimizing flight schedules.