气候变化问题经济分析方法的研究进展和发展方向

Research Progress of Analytic and Modelling Methodologies in Climate Change Economics

气候变化是一个全球尺度的环境问题,同时也是一个经济问题。作者梳理了气候变化问题经济分析主要采用的模型工具,回顾了不同类型模型的发展历程并总结其结构特点。现有经济分析方法和模型工具无法合理地解决各种不确定性问题,也难以准确刻画技术进步以及极端气候灾害带来的经济损失和损害,因此有可能低估气候变化给全球经济带来的负面影响;不同分析所使用的贴现率水平也存在很大的差异;此外,现有的分析框架无法考虑不同地区和不同个体在面对气候变化问题时存在的异质性。为了解决上述问题,近年来,经济学者开始尝试将分析传统经济问题时使用的动态一般均衡模型和智能体模型等新工具用于分析气候变化问题,评估应对气候变化行动产生的成本和收益。展望未来,中国应积极开发具有自主知识产权的适用于研究气候变化问题的经济分析模型工具,根据中国实际情况校准获得的关键参数和数据,将评估结果与国外模型的模拟结果进行对标,并建立相应的参数数据库。

Climate change is an important global environment issue and it is an economic issue as well. In this paper,the author summarizes the major models and analytic methodologies in climate change economics and reviews the development history,category and structure characteristics of some economic blocks in IAMs. However,some key aspects of these models couldn＇ t be addressed adequately by current climate economic methodologies,including uncertainties,technological change,the damages and losses created by extreme climate disasters etc. Thus,the results may possibly underestimate the economic impacts of global climate change. Meanwhile,different models tend to use distinct discount rates. These models could not treat the heterogeneities of different regions and agents in facing climate change. To solve all these problems,some economists try to use DSGE and ABM models to analyze climate change issues and estimate the benefits and costs for different measures or actions to deal with climate change in recent years. Looking into the future,China needs actively develop its own economic analytic models for climate change issues,calibrate the key parameters based on China＇ s real situation,estimate the benefits and costs from the models and compare the results with other international models. Based on these works,China could establish the basic database for future studies.