农业劳动力老龄化、非农劳动力兼业化对农业生产环节外包的影响

The Effect of Aging of Agricultural Labor Force and Part-time Farming on the Outsourcing of Agricultural Production

农业劳动力老龄化可能对农业生产造成不利冲击,农业生产环节外包被认为是实现资本对劳动力替代的现实路径。关于老龄化是否会增加外包需求,已有研究尚未达成共识,并且存在一个重要的不足之处:没有考虑到兼业化的非农劳动力协助农业生产的作用,非农劳动力协助农业生产往往与老龄化存在正相关关系,这导致老龄化对于外包影响的估计结果存在显著偏误。本文引入非农劳动力是否住家这一重要变量,剥离出非农劳动力协助农业生产的作用,仅评估老龄化对于外包的边际影响。研究结果表明,老龄化对外包的影响在不同的环节存在差异,在低劳动强度环节,老龄化非但不会增加外包,反而显著降低了外包概率;在高劳动强度环节恰好相反,老龄化显著增加了外包概率。此外,在农业劳动力年龄相同的条件下,相比于非农劳动力住家的家庭,非农劳动力不住家的家庭外包概率更高。

The aging of the agricultural labor force may cause adverse impact on agricultural production,and the outsourcing of agricultural production is considered a practical way to realize the alternative of capital to labor force.Previous studies have not reached a consensus on the effect of aging,and most of them did not consider that non-agricultural labor force engages agricultural production,which would lead to biased results.This paper introduces a variable,the non-agricultural labor stays at home or not,to avoid the endogenously of ageing,and the empirical results showed that aging decreases significantly outsourcing probability in low-labor-intensity processes and increases the probability of outsourcing in highlabor-intensity processes.In addition,compared to the households whose non-agricultural labors stay at home,those whose non-agricultural labors do not stay at home may choose outsourcing with higher probability.