计及不确定性和需求响应的风光燃储集成虚拟电厂随机调度优化模型

Stochastic Scheduling Optimization Model for Virtual Power Plant of Integrated Wind-Photovoltaic-Energy Storage System Considering Uncertainty and Demand Response

为促进以风光为代表的分布式能源发电并网,集成风电、光伏发电、燃气轮机、储能系统和激励型需求响应为虚拟电厂(virtual power plant,VPP),引入条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)理论和置信度方法描述VPP运行不确定性,以运营收益最大化为目标函数,建立VPP常规调度优化模型,确定VPP运行收益的门槛值。然后,应用CVaR理论描述VPP运行目标函数中不确定性因素,应用置信度方法转换含不确定性变量的约束条件,建立考虑运行风险的VPP随机调度优化模型。最后,选择改进IEEE 30节点系统作为仿真系统,结果表明:价格型需求响应能够平缓用电负荷曲线,储能系统和激励型需求响应能够增加VPP运营收益。VPP常规调度收益为9 550.19元,风光并网电量为12.49 MW×h,风险规避调度收益为8 995.34元,风光并网电量为11.31 MW×h,这意味着CVaR理论和置信度方法能够用于描述VPP运行风险,通过设置门槛值和置信度反映决策者风险态度,为决策者提供风险控制工具。

In order to promote grid connection of distributed energy generation,represented by wind and photovoltaic powers,this paper introduces condition value at risk（CVaR） theory and confidence method to describe the uncertainties of virtual power plant（VPP） operation and construct a CVaR model for VPP scheduling considering wind power,photovoltaic power,gas turbine,energy storage systems（ESSs） and incentive-based demand response（IBDR）.Firstly,a basic optimization model for VPP scheduling is established to determine threshold value of VPP operating profit with maximized operating profit as objective function.Secondly,CVaR theory and confidence method are used to describe the uncertainty factors in the objective function and constraints.Meanwhile,a stochastic scheduling model for VPP scheduling is established considering operational risks.Finally,the improved IEEE 30-node system is taken as simulation system.Result shows that price-based demand response（PBDR） could smooth load demand curve and ESSs and IBDR can increase VPP operating profit.In VPP＇s basic scheduling,the revenue and generation of wind power and PV are $9 550.19 and 12.49 MW×h.In VPP＇s risk avoidance scheduling,the revenue and generation of wind power and PV are $8 995.34 and 11.31 MW×h.This means CVaR theory and confidence method can be used to describe VPP operation risk by setting thresholds and confidence levels,providing effective risk-control tool for decision-makers.